2023 Breeders' Stakes Discussion
The final leg of the Canadian Triple Crown is on Sunday at Woodbine with the 12-furlong Breeders’ Stakes. The top two choices will be Mark Casse products in #7 Paramount Prince and #12 Elysian Field. They are both quality horses. We got a big piece of Elysian Field winning the Woodbine Oaks earlier this year, generating goodwill.
But neither is going to be worth a bet in Sunday’s race and the question falls to whether there are any upsetters in the wings who are maturing into advancement beyond those in skill and/or are built to win at this sort of distance. I’m a lot better at determining the former sort of runner than the latter, but in any event I think we’re limited to considering three horses who can get the job done in their stead.
#6 Tito’s Calling Another filly in the race, she wasn’t very good when running with Elysian Field in the Woodbine Oaks. Her result next time out was a little better but as an indicator of a weaker group she faced. Her argument today hinges on building off the race last time, also on grass, in the Wonder Where Stakes.
I think she did show something more and different there than she had on Tapeta. She also had some promising turf races in her second and third career starts last year as a juvenile. She may be on to something, and she did it real easy there at ten furlongs as the other filly in this race, #14 Wickenheiser, charged with all she had and was no threat. Tito’s Calling would appear to also have upside going this distance.
#9 Midnight in Malibu
He’s under consideration for looking to have some nice form and 3yo development, if we can avoid being too concerned about the Inbred’s Plate result. From running lines, this distance may not look very attractive though.
And having watched his last three, I don’t think I’m looking at a contender in this race. The n1x win three back was ideal circumstances and race flow for him, able to get a big lead he couldn’t screw up before they got to the wire. He’s not all that polished and isn’t going to get it done in a big spot like this where he’d have to look someone else who is really good in the eye and beat them. Not that sort.
If I ever find him at almost any one-turn distance on the turf, with blinkers on, I’d be interested.
#11 Touch’n Ride He’s the most lightly raced horse in the field with just three excursions under his belt and has looked pretty good. The maiden win was authoritative and got a nice number, and his Inbred’s Plate effort wasn’t bad either, winding up fifth.
But I don’t think there is enough there to get involved today, especially considering he won’t be a particularly big price as third choice on the morning line.
But in the impressive looking maiden win he was up against a clear top two in Ottawa and Dryden. Dryden completely folded early on the turn. Ottawa put up little fight as well at 4/5. It wasn’t all that good a race.
And despite the fifth in the Inbred’s Plate, while some may upgrade him because he was outside all the way around, I think that’s more a case of his having a clean run all the way around. In the way horses who aren’t really threats to win advance with clean runs from behind in the big Kentucky Derby field, the effect there was similar, in my opinion. He’s got a lot to prove to pull this off and has no real shot at being worth a bet on doing it.
And, after going through that exercise and not needing to spread my upside around, it looks like I’m very likely to be getting some money down on Tito’s Calling. I’d advise you do the same.