The Totemaster General

The essence of winning as a horseplayer as I put it to myself is “zig when they zag”.

The first race at Santa Anita on Saturday could present a good opportunity to get a bet in on our top choice in the race because too many people will zig like this with regard to #1 Report:

Sure, she looks like a filly who can win but it is September of her 3yo year and she’s only now making it into a race. Something’s not right.

The zag to this, I credit to Steve Asmussen. I heard him say it in an interview when someone asked him about a horse entered the upcoming weekend in a similar spot, and that his horse would have to beat some other older horses with experience.

If the ones with experience were any good they wouldn’t be maidens.

In Saturday’s race Report faces

#2 Side by Side with a bunch of figures that beat anything anyone else has run in here, but is now oh-for-twelve. #4 Miss Monarch Bay who has two terrible starts from the gate in two races and is the 5/2 second choice. #8 Riley G who has been off a year after a debut loss at 4/5 for Baffert and who has been completely dominated in three recent video works and looked not very composed. Naturally, she is the 2/1 morning line favorite.

If folks are going to get behind 4 and 8, then that creates a chance for a real healthy overlay of Report, who looks ready to go from her works I watched. And has the complete debut winner resume.

I advise betting Report at 5/2 or higher.

But what of the problems she’s obviously had that have kept her from racing?

When she had the issues, she didn’t race. Now she’s racing. Quite possibly because the issue is gone. And when you can back it up with some good workouts on tape, that’s even better.

#6 Sultry Kitten is probably a good filly to look to fill out verticals with some value.