The Totemaster General

I took note last week of the news tidbit that Future Motion had recalled their one wheel skateboards after four people died on them. I took note mostly because there is a guy I see pretty frequently on walks along the Los Gatos Creek Trail who uses his at obnoxious speeds as his dog hauls ass alongside.

After work this evening I worked out and then went for a walk on the trail. When I go, I can head left where I enter the trail and go down to a park and back, or take a right and go a little further that way to Los Gatos and back. I went left this time and just a couple minutes into it I see off in the distance (trail is pretty straight at this juncture) what I eventually make out to be the guy’s dog, and then him on the pavement, having taken a fall off the board at obnoxious speeds.

I think it’s been at least a couple years I’ve been seeing this guy and now is when it happens. Wild.

He was far enough away that I couldn’t determine any specific injuries, but he was really having a hard time slithering himself off to the side of the path. And he goes fast, man. I doubt he’s dead, but he is shook the fuck up.

If it had just been me out there I would have gone down and seen what I could do for him, but there were two individuals and a couple who were going to come upon him before me, so I just turned around and went to Los Gatos and back instead.

I think I have been buzzed by this guy and his dog taking up ¾ of the trail at those speeds for the last time. I’m not happy he’s jacked up, but all that happened is he faced the consequences of his actions. This product shouldn’t exist and also be able to go these speeds, but I consider it something anyone could figure out for themselves that they shouldn’t go that fast on it with absolutely nowhere to go, nothing to do if you had an accident. And this guy rode it standing completely straight up.

Most importantly, the dog was totally fine.

The essence of winning as a horseplayer as I put it to myself is “zig when they zag”.

The first race at Santa Anita on Saturday could present a good opportunity to get a bet in on our top choice in the race because too many people will zig like this with regard to #1 Report:

Sure, she looks like a filly who can win but it is September of her 3yo year and she’s only now making it into a race. Something’s not right.

The zag to this, I credit to Steve Asmussen. I heard him say it in an interview when someone asked him about a horse entered the upcoming weekend in a similar spot, and that his horse would have to beat some other older horses with experience.

If the ones with experience were any good they wouldn’t be maidens.

In Saturday’s race Report faces

#2 Side by Side with a bunch of figures that beat anything anyone else has run in here, but is now oh-for-twelve. #4 Miss Monarch Bay who has two terrible starts from the gate in two races and is the 5/2 second choice. #8 Riley G who has been off a year after a debut loss at 4/5 for Baffert and who has been completely dominated in three recent video works and looked not very composed. Naturally, she is the 2/1 morning line favorite.

If folks are going to get behind 4 and 8, then that creates a chance for a real healthy overlay of Report, who looks ready to go from her works I watched. And has the complete debut winner resume.

I advise betting Report at 5/2 or higher.

But what of the problems she’s obviously had that have kept her from racing?

When she had the issues, she didn’t race. Now she’s racing. Quite possibly because the issue is gone. And when you can back it up with some good workouts on tape, that’s even better.

#6 Sultry Kitten is probably a good filly to look to fill out verticals with some value.

Per a system I devised during the first week of this NFL season, I am making selections weekly per the criteria and seeing how it shakes out over the course of the season. It’s all road dogs picked.

Thus far, three weeks and three winning weeks for a combined record of 11-7.

Picks can be made based on opening lines, or whatever is around when you get to checking. In theory, getting them in right away would be key and tracking CLV from there could provide another layer to determine viability of selections in addition to the actual record.

Week 5 Picks Bears +7 Jaguars +5.5 Saints +1.5 Titans +1.5 Cowboys +4

The final leg of the Canadian Triple Crown is on Sunday at Woodbine with the 12-furlong Breeders’ Stakes. The top two choices will be Mark Casse products in #7 Paramount Prince and #12 Elysian Field. They are both quality horses. We got a big piece of Elysian Field winning the Woodbine Oaks earlier this year, generating goodwill.

But neither is going to be worth a bet in Sunday’s race and the question falls to whether there are any upsetters in the wings who are maturing into advancement beyond those in skill and/or are built to win at this sort of distance. I’m a lot better at determining the former sort of runner than the latter, but in any event I think we’re limited to considering three horses who can get the job done in their stead.

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#6 Tito’s Calling Another filly in the race, she wasn’t very good when running with Elysian Field in the Woodbine Oaks. Her result next time out was a little better but as an indicator of a weaker group she faced. Her argument today hinges on building off the race last time, also on grass, in the Wonder Where Stakes.

I think she did show something more and different there than she had on Tapeta. She also had some promising turf races in her second and third career starts last year as a juvenile. She may be on to something, and she did it real easy there at ten furlongs as the other filly in this race, #14 Wickenheiser, charged with all she had and was no threat. Tito’s Calling would appear to also have upside going this distance.

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#9 Midnight in Malibu He’s under consideration for looking to have some nice form and 3yo development, if we can avoid being too concerned about the Inbred’s Plate result. From running lines, this distance may not look very attractive though.

And having watched his last three, I don’t think I’m looking at a contender in this race. The n1x win three back was ideal circumstances and race flow for him, able to get a big lead he couldn’t screw up before they got to the wire. He’s not all that polished and isn’t going to get it done in a big spot like this where he’d have to look someone else who is really good in the eye and beat them. Not that sort.

If I ever find him at almost any one-turn distance on the turf, with blinkers on, I’d be interested.

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#11 Touch’n Ride He’s the most lightly raced horse in the field with just three excursions under his belt and has looked pretty good. The maiden win was authoritative and got a nice number, and his Inbred’s Plate effort wasn’t bad either, winding up fifth.

But I don’t think there is enough there to get involved today, especially considering he won’t be a particularly big price as third choice on the morning line.

But in the impressive looking maiden win he was up against a clear top two in Ottawa and Dryden. Dryden completely folded early on the turn. Ottawa put up little fight as well at 4/5. It wasn’t all that good a race.

And despite the fifth in the Inbred’s Plate, while some may upgrade him because he was outside all the way around, I think that’s more a case of his having a clean run all the way around. In the way horses who aren’t really threats to win advance with clean runs from behind in the big Kentucky Derby field, the effect there was similar, in my opinion. He’s got a lot to prove to pull this off and has no real shot at being worth a bet on doing it.

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And, after going through that exercise and not needing to spread my upside around, it looks like I’m very likely to be getting some money down on Tito’s Calling. I’d advise you do the same.

This turf n1x on the inner turf revolves around #7 My Sea Cottage, the 9/5 morning line favorite dropping out of two Grade 1 attempts for Mark Casse. He’s going to be bet very hard and he may win, but there are quite a few bad races and non-winning races in his range today.

Most of those races have been introduced by the possibility of badly degraded form. His last race in the Woodbine Mile was not very good, which may be in part from not being asked for a whole lot once it was clear he hasn’t pulling it off. But it could also be because he spent what he had in the Fourstardave at Saratoga in the race prior, where he contested a hot pace and actually held for fourth and got a big number for it from TimeformUS.

The inner turf at Woodbine at 7.5 furlongs is also not especially friendly to horses on the lead, and he may get a lot of pressure from #3 Beau Guest, who is going two turns for the first time.

If he does get hooked up in a duel, then it would open things up potentially for a big price in #2 Perfect Crime, who doesn’t find paces to run at all that often, but when he does he makes his run at it, as when he took second place at 37/1 two back.

But more likely, it ends up with one of #1 Palio or #6 Spirit Animal. My mind wouldn’t be completely blown if the latter ends up going off post time favorite, really. He is my top pick and has clearly been a very good one since hooking up with Martin Drexler.

Here is my line on the contenders:

#1 Palio – 7/2 #2 Perfect Crime – 10/1 #4 Hunt Master – 10/1 #6 Spirit Animal – 5/2 #7 My Sea Cottage – 4/1